Reposted by Tim Richardson
Are we headed toward a recession?
JPMorgan Chase reported this week that there is a 40% chance of a downturn and Goldman Sachs increased their recession forecast from 15% to 20% in the next year. Layoffs have already occurred in some U.S. companies. If a worry index were real, it would be rising too.
Ironically, it was five years ago that the bottom fell out. What started as ”two weeks to stop the spread” turned into a massive disruption of our economic and social lives. We were afraid. We panicked. Our routines were disrupted. Many lost friends and loved ones. Every normal thing we did changed almost overnight. Fear drove many of our decisions. Organizations went through massive changes overnight. It was eerily like 9/11 in a lot of ways. Everyone in my business lost all in-person speaking engagements on their schedules, devastating the lives of countless colleagues and depriving conference attendees of much needed inspiration, instruction, and education. I spoke with a friend yesterday who shared that he went into a deep depression. I’ll admit it, it was tough for me too. I hardly had any business for almost 18 months. I wasted a lot of time in the early days of the COVID-19 crisis. I was waiting and hoping for a quick turnaround. When that didn’t happen, I had my own private pity parties. I sure would like to have that time back. A do-over would be nice. My smart peers pivoted quickly. They set up virtual studios in their homes and continued to do what they had always done, but just online. Some had their best year ever. While I continued to wait, they adopted a “adversity creates opportunity” mindset. No matter what you do, having a contingency plan is a good idea.
Whether we enter a recession or not, taking a careful look at your business practices and policies is a valuable exercise. Reaching out to your customers, members, or clients is always a good idea, but scheduling regular times to check in during rough times may be particularly prudent. Spending time with your staff or colleagues listening to their concerns is always helpful, but especially in times of uncertainty. Eliminating or changing aspects of your business that waste time or cause frustration will be appreciated internally and externally at any time. Examine expenses and see where you could trim unnecessary costs. Making all these practices a regular part of your thinking could be critical to thrive in times of chaos.
Most important of all – stay strong.
Push fear aside and adopt the mantra that opportunities are created through adversity. Have a mindset that whatever the challenges, you’ll navigate them with a positive mindset and help others do the same. Warren Buffet is famous for taking advantage of economic downturns from an investing perspective. He famously says, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Take ground when others retreat. Let uncertainty and downturns motivate you into action. Things may look foggy now but taking thoughtful action may result in clarity and help alleviate the fear.
Let adversity create opportunity.
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